The bonds are showing signs of stress. We filled with the TLT put cal and so far so good. We will stay on course for this. Looks like the economy is slowing and the feds rate cuts didn't have the effects it was counting on and so inflation has raised its ugly head. so that we are to now have the feds raise rates giving us an opportunity for shorting bonds. This may be for a few years here folks so it is not a quick in and out trade.
Turning to internationals, Asia and Latin America will leave us in the dust in the years to come. You can sit back and watch or get on board. Kind of like the discussions I have had of late about oil prices. After I hear the others gripe, I ask them if they own any oil stocks? Interesting responses.
The short of it, you can complain about what is happening, or you can take advantage of it. Not that I am in favor of what I see, but it does me no good to complain. I try to change with my vote, but I also am a realist and I see opportunities here that most do not.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Short Bonds
Last week I got filled on TLT put calendars. Now we hear the feds claiming no more rate cuts. This should make for an interesting week with the bonds clearly becoming weak now. After all ow much lower can the feds go now that their counter parts over in Europe have not followed suit.
I also look for Latin America to continue to explode. Asia markets as well. However since many Latin America countries are solid with natural resource companies I like them better right now. I plant to go long a diagonal on EWZ some time this week.
P.S. sorry about the delayed postings.
P.S.S. Remember these are for educational purposes and not for real trades.
I also look for Latin America to continue to explode. Asia markets as well. However since many Latin America countries are solid with natural resource companies I like them better right now. I plant to go long a diagonal on EWZ some time this week.
P.S. sorry about the delayed postings.
P.S.S. Remember these are for educational purposes and not for real trades.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Update
Had internet problems at home and so the blog is a few days late for posting.
We had the feds drop rates once again. No shock. What we are looking at now is bonds to start imploding. I am trying to get a long calendar put on TLT. (this is not advise this is for educational purposes).
Still long natural resouces with the expectation that the trend will continue up in the next week or so. We got the correction we were looking for. I just wished oil had come down more. That one has me concerned that it will still drop.
The volatility should continue. It usually does in environments such as these, but that is good for selling strategies.
We had the feds drop rates once again. No shock. What we are looking at now is bonds to start imploding. I am trying to get a long calendar put on TLT. (this is not advise this is for educational purposes).
Still long natural resouces with the expectation that the trend will continue up in the next week or so. We got the correction we were looking for. I just wished oil had come down more. That one has me concerned that it will still drop.
The volatility should continue. It usually does in environments such as these, but that is good for selling strategies.
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