Thursday, January 21, 2010

401 k's at risk

So the headline I read stated. The gov is contemplating forcing some sort of annuity for your 401 k. seems too many lost large sums therefore are not smart enough to manage their affairs. While I agree that most have no clue and rely on the same pious hucksters for their advice, the real issue (in my opinion) is that annuities are in general insurance companies buying treasuries and keeping them in a pool for annuity buyers.

It is no secret that foreign buying of our debt is in a free fall and domestic buyers are drying up as well, forcing 401k's to buy annuities will have more capital to buy the nations debt.

Call it a conspiracy, but reality is that there is not enough floating capital to buy the debt we have at auctions now. the banks are already borrowing from the feds at .25% and buying treasuries. (hence no lending, why should they) stay with me here. We all know (at least you should) that the banks leverage every dollar to 10 so the 2.75% off of the borrow/buy fed scam, it equates to 27%. Good work if you can get it.

The insanity keeps coming: SHORT TREASURIES it will be difficult to raise capital at the auctions unless the rates start up.

Later

Substance

Is it any wonder the seniors get hooked all the time? Take a look at the first comment to my Japan posting. While the comments are truthful, is that really all someone looks at for advice?

This is why the mainstream media still gets it wrong on everything. I tune in and all it is, is image. Well that sells, but it does not make you money.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Japan

The idea behind more profits is to get on board a train before all the other passengers. This give you the best seat to watch and the easiest exit.

Japan has been dead (investment wise) for 20 plus years. Now would probsbly be a good time to go long Japan inc. EWJ is extremely inexpensive. A good diagonal on this would be a decent play. You can buy out to '12 10 call for 1.40 or so. This give you 2 years to sell calls on it. After today drop, it should make for a good buy. Then if you want to extract the most from this long term bull trend, sell close month calls avery time a rally happens, then buy back or roll out each time the inevitable correction comes.

This should be an easy play to beat the measly returns most are getting now.

Also since the treasury basically gave un told resources to Fanni mae, FNM selling puts is another one on the radar. However it is not giving too muvh in premiums right now.

Just some thoughts

Monday, January 18, 2010

Many opportunities in 2010

As we start a new year and a new decade, there are so many opportunities. Not the ones your advisors will see, and not the ones you might come to expect as the norm. This next decade as in the last will not fare to well for the buy and hold. This does not mean that you will nedd to day trade. Far from it. In fact you would not need to review your trades more than once a week. The trends will be very strong. All we will need to do is know where we are at in the trend and trade accordingly.

Treasuries! What a no brainer for these! With 30 years of falling interest rates to the lowest in history, it does not take rocket science to see where rates have to go. UP!!

The problem will be that it is going to be a wild ride. As equities drop and rally, so too will long term bonds. You can either buy a rydex inverse bond fund and let it go, or you can try to use options for larger gains.

This will be where I will spend my dollars. Using put stategies on TLT.

Another no brainer factor here is the massive amounts of debt the gov is piling up. The only way to pay this down is with more dollars. Devaluing the dollar is the only way to keep this charade going. In order to do this, investor will demand more for the treasuries they are buying.

So there you have it for the next 10 years. "SELL LONG TERM TREASURIES!" or put option strategies on bonds