Monday, June 8, 2009

Dow component

If I am wrong, wasnt the Dow supposed to drop CITI and GM today and replace them with cisco and another one?

If so, the Dow sure went nowhere for having a switch like this.

I would imagine all of the funds that need to adjust their portfolios to reflect this change should have made more of a rally.

But then if I am wrong on the date....

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Employment numbers

If anyone noticed, the adp jobs loss was revised (as usual) down. If anoyone wants to use data such as this for fundamental analysis, they need to look to an average of revisions. Are the revisions getting better or worse. the news hardly ever reports the revisions, if the revisions arre worse each and every month, then you have a trend.

The best way to use this information is the take 6 months average, that take out the wild swings so to speak. If yoou want to llok at these each and everytime, then make sure you look at the revisions as well. I think Friday fed numbers on employment are coming out. Look to the revisions and see if they are revised down or not. My guess is they will be.

Monday, June 1, 2009

the markets can act irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

GM the largest industrial bankruptcy ever and the 4th largest.

The market jumps at the open. Do the masses understand what this will trickle down too? Not only GM shriking, but auto suppliers as well not to mention dealers in every state.

But hey just as in the gaga years of the dot.com, these all dont matter for it is up up and away.

Friday, May 29, 2009

Sheer Lunacy

Since I last posted on this blog there has been nothing but sheer lunacy coming out of D.C.

We now are watching central planners in action. GM (government motors) will come out with the politically correct car, not that any of us will buy it but then who ever said the gov. is efficient.

This debt has to be paid. The only way I ca visualize at this stage is a massive dollar devaluation. Of course that has happened ever since we gave up our banks to the federal reserve.

Now stay with me here...The treasury needs to auction of our debts. But no one is coming to the auction other than the 16 that are mandatory show, but the bids are getting high now. So the reserve is going to buy these bonds. I ask with what money? Why of course made up money they can just print and so the U.S. treasury ends up owing to private bankers backed by my and yours taxes. And you thought Ponzi had a scheme.

We are now a banana republic. We will lose our AAA status and go the way of all fiat currencies.

That leaves us with tangibles. Dont believe it, look at commodities lately.