Monday, February 8, 2010

Where is the bottom?



I get the question all the time. “When will the bear market bottom out” To help answer this we look to history (as always).
This is a picture of historical P/E’s. As you will note the two previous bear markets in ’29-’40 and ’66-’82 the P/E ratio bottomed out at around 5. The lowest being in 1920. Going by this we can expect the market to drop another 75% Why? We are at a P/E of around 20 now. So to get to 5 p/e we need a drop of 75%
Having come off the greatest bull ever with an astounding p/e/ of 44, we can expect much pain and it would not surprise me to see us set a new low p/e.

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