Friday, August 22, 2008

Careful out there

We had the bounce off what appears to be the bottom however, as in the expected correction, we also expect wild swings to take out the weak positions. Weak meaning those that are not convinced and take small losses or gains and exit.

We rolled out on TLT and DBA as well as XLE to Oct. you take what the market gives you and yesterday the market gave us good premiums to roll out. I tried for GDX but did not get a fill.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Dell,
this is just bait for investors.
XLE and EWZ are closely linked to oil prices. As the oil will take off on Tuesday, as DJ drops, these two ETFs and others will experience gains.
The real gains will be seen in September. Oil should make another attempt at over $120, drop some more and then take off really big.
As I did not buy any puts in DUG, I sure will sometime in the first week of September.
Next week should very interesting for traders. Wild swings again. I gotta agree with you on what's coming next.

Did you like what Bernanke had to say today about the inflation?
I thought that was the best comedy hour I heard in weeks or months.

Dell said...

Ben was the same guy that swore the subprime mess just a year ago was contained.
It is entertaining isn't it. Gives you something to watch instead of the markets.
Tuesday huh? Okay I have it down.

Anonymous said...

hahahaha
uncle ben also swore last year that he wouldn't help any bank/financial institution.
we all know what happened.
Him and Cramer are the best clowns on tv nowadays.

Here's some of Ben's entertaining material from today's speech:
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Friday signaled he isn't contemplating higher interest rates despite what he called a "jump" in inflation, saying he expects those pressures to subside.

Bernanke also said officials "remain focused" on addressing risks to the economy and financial markets which have led officials to maintain a "relatively low" federal-funds rate target for interbank lending.

Officials are betting that stable commodity prices coupled with slower global growth and anchored inflation expectations will eventually soften price pressures, Bernanke said in opening remarks to the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference.

"In this regard, the recent decline in commodity prices, as well as the increased stability of the dollar, has been encouraging," Bernanke said.

"If not reversed, these developments, together with a pace of growth that is likely to fall short of potential for a time, should lead inflation to moderate later this year and next year," Bernanke said, though he called the price outlook "highly uncertain" and said officials "will act as necessary" to make sure prices moderate.

He is absolutely the best in business.
He expects inflation to subside. All by itself, and with the help of ongoing low interest rates and also liquidity injections.

By far the best line:
"stable commodity prices coupled with slower global growth and anchored inflation expectations will eventually soften price pressures".

So we got rid of the inflation. It actually went away by itself. And we got rid of recession, if there ever was one..
The champagne is in the fridge already, I'm celebrating tonight.

My daughter also believes in fairy tales.
I'll have her pick my stocks. They should all go up anyway.

Dell said...

I have been told that if you understand a certain topic well enough and someone talks about this subject that you cannot understand, that is "bulljive". My favorite for this was ole greenie himself Mr. Bubbles. When first took the helm I would read his ramblings. Now he is just B.S.
Ben first took the stage and told a reporter at a social function straight talk and we saw what happened.
I would be surprised from now on if I understand anything that comes out of his mouth.
But then I wuold not expect the truth now would I?

Anonymous said...

I had to wait till Monday to go short TLT.
It looks good now.

Anonymous said...

So Tuesday was the turnaround day for oil. I didn't know anything about "Gustav".
Funny thing... I see DJ going up toward 12000 level.