Real Estate

I went out this weekend just to peruse the scene. For the most part our area had held up pretty well over the last years carnage everywhere else. It too is collapsing. Bargains to be had. Problem is, if I buy now, will there be more drop left to go. I am thinking yes. So now we play the tight rope game here. Wait too long and the deals will not longer be there, get in too soon and it could be a few years to break even point.

What has this to do with options? Plenty. Remember it was the lose credit policy from investment houses, lenders, the feds etc. that got the housing bubble going full steam. Which in turn has bleed over into the over all economy. So until housing comes back we are still headed for troubled waters regardless of what the feds put out there for numbers. After all we should all know the feds numbers eventually show the truth. Problem is I cannot invest properly on "revised" numbers. By the time the gov revised last falls numbers this past week, the financial stocks had already imploded. Shorting financial stocks now would be just a small gain while taking large risks.

Use your common sense while looking at fundamentals. If you see everyone chasing something, know that the gig is up. The same thing will hold true to commodities. By the time this bull is over, we will see unheard of prices and the masses tripping all over each other trying to get long. Some touting how smart they are and to follow them and amass a fortune. Yadda yadda yadda. In the last 10 years we have seen this attitude in dot.com stocks, Real Estate and now commodities. Once this happens,look to exit the game and find the next bubble the feds create.