Is the rally over?

Far from me being able to prognosticate markets timing, but have we run the course of the bear market rally?

It really has the appearance of a Japan style economy. Throw some money here, wait and see, Throw some there wait and see. Hide the bank problems, hide off balance sheet losses, etc.

What did Japan get for all of its tricks? 20 years of a spiral down. Mind you some of the rallies were impressive and sustained a year on many of these rally's. 40%-50%even 60% retracements only to falter and eventually continue lower.

The only question in my mind is are we exactly like Japan or similar. These rallies will be long and appear to have the bottom in sight. Reality tells me otherwise.

How to trade this stuff is taking the long term bear approach and selling shorter term against the long term. These rallies could be 6 months or more in the making.

You could wait until a decent rally in the 30% range then take positions to the short tide as well.

Secular bear markets make a very select few very wealthy. Because only the few recognize what it is. The "Professionals" i.e. financial planners, insurance, brokers etc. have a mind set and compensation set up to make money only as markets rally.

For the most part the many will buy on these dips only to see much lower prices later on. The very select wise traders will see the rally points as opportunities to get more short positions and ride out the temporary rally.

There is going to be much more pain to come. The best thing you can do for folks is to show them what is really happening and how to get on board.

p.s. I do take referral, but as most of you know it is only the very select few that want to come on board.