Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Credit contractions

It seems that the credit markets are going to continue to deteriorate. This will also eat into the consumer as shown by GE earnings. There are arguments that the slow down of our economy will slow down the natural resource boom. While this is a valid argument, I would differ with that assumptions. Even GE's overseas infrastructure divisions boomed. That tells me that Asia is still strong and forcing most nations to grapple finding sources for natural resources. That is bullish.

On the negative side, Real Estate is still facing numerous challenges. As the bulk of the adjustable reset in the next few months, many more foreclosures will appear. For those waiting to get in on the action, it is too early.

As the Real Estate bubble pops, we have a new bubble in commodities. Expect your neighbors to be talking to you about this. That will tell you we are in the final stage. This one could go for awhile even after the neighbors climb on board. It will take patience on my part to listen to the new guru's about to be spawned. The neighborhood barbecues will be much nodding from me.

Long natural resources and short the dollar still.

Buy long term options and sell short term options is still the mantra of this trader.
As in all of these, this is for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice.

Good to be back. Feel free to forward this site to anyone that may find it helpful.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

It's good to have you back. What happened to the pink background?