Thursday, June 19, 2008

Inflation

It is here and it is not fooling the consumer anymore.

Contrary to the manipulated government stats, inflation is roaring ahead full speed with no end in sight for a long time.

There is really only a few ways to stay ahead of inflation. Going long tangibles or going short intangibles. Pretty simple. The problem being that if you go long or short these tangibles, you will keep up with inflation.

In other words if you buy wheat and store it, next year you can use the wheat to bake a loaf of bread and it will not cost you any more since wheat will keep up with inflation.

So the only way to prosper and gain wealth is to leverage the wheat. Say buying from a farmer to deliver the wheat to you in 6 months at a price you both agree on and then put a down payment on this. (much like the housing market) We have just created a futures contract (deliver on a future date)

What happens to most traders is they either are too conservative and do not stay ahead of the inflation, or get too far leveraged that any small correction and they cant meet their obligations and have to sell out at a loss.

ETF's have now solved this and as we all know, we love to use options to trade these thereby gaining more than enough leverage to not only stay ahead of inflation, but to gain wealth as well.

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