Just as we mentioned. The headlines are all a jitter with oil dropping. The bottom is in some say. I disagree. If you have followed at all, we were salivating waiting for a big drop to get long. Now the drop is here, we are waiting for a good signal to get long XLE. My best guess (and we know how good I am at this) is 70 or so to get long a calendar. We should see some very low premiums as the masses will know that the oil bubble has popped.
We all should know better. But then this is what makes markets.
Also Gold is getting soft and grains...So if you missed the commodity train last stop, you will have one more chance to get on board. It will be a difficult decision if you have not been riding this already. Since the media will be all against this sort of trade, it will take courage.
I have seen the same arguments since oil was at 20 a barrel and gold at 250. Now I am by no means a gold bug but when the forces of inflation line up such as they are, it is silly to listen to the talking heads. We are in one of the greatest bull markets in commodities. The corrections are part of the game. Take the corrections for what they are and don't get sidetracked believing otherwise.
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9 comments:
Hi Dell,
August 19 $100/barrel, then it takes off again.
My prediction anyway.
I will be watching the price and date you call.
I also am starting to like USO
I think that will be a very good long entry point.
Hi Dell, it's Jonathon. I still don't get how so many analysts affect what the big investment houses do, when they all jump into stocks yesterday, only to find out this morning the recession might have begun, and now they have to eat their words! How do these people have any credibility?
They really do not have any credibility. And neither does the Gov. statistics. Just now 7 months later do they admit to a negative growth for the end of 2007. We alredy knew this. Now in about 7 more months it will be reviesed again.
This is what drives new fundamental traders crazy. You need to know between hype and news. Once you get your sources right, then the rest is entertainment.
How USB under investigation with the SEC had emails back and forth about the garbage notes they had in their portfolio and how they were going to dump these on the general public.
There never has been a level playing field. You have to realize this is a game for keeps. Or stay out. Things like watching your neighbors burdened with debt, CRB index, small mom and pops struggling. That is the true fundamentals that you need to key off of and forget the analysts. Most of the time they are trying to dump something that the firm they represents has in inventory.
Hi Dell,
Cramer on Yahoo Finance recommends Cabot Oil & Gas. That stock looks like it is in a free fall. I think it is close cu reentering its natural trend, after the bubble burst.
Do you agree with him?
symbol: COG
Alex.
PS also he recommends BAC. I think it is the paerfect time to short it. Just my opinion.
Hi Dell,
Cramer on Yahoo Finance recommends Cabot Oil & Gas. That stock looks like it is in a free fall. I think it is close cu reentering its natural trend, after the bubble burst.
Do you agree with him?
symbol: COG
Alex.
PS also he recommends BAC. I think it is the paerfect time to short it. Just my opinion.
Cramer like all the other talking heads are for entertainment purposes only.
I wrote to him in the late nineties about how his bullish stance on the tech stocks are going to blow up on him and those that buy into the hype.
No response.
When you are in sales, you try to sell the sizzle. But you also need the steak to be there. Guys like Cramer sell the sizzle but have no steak to back it up.
We are in a very severe correction in the natural resouces. We welcome these as buying opportunities. But...you have to be patient since corrections often look like a trend change. Getting in too early can cause our style of trading to be a few months of low premuims to collect.
As for financial stocks, I would not go long them with a ten foot poll....in fact XLF is setting up for a pretty good put cal spread here. IMHO...
I think it's safe to say and trade the exact opposite of what he screams all day long.
You'd probably have 90-99% chance of winning big.
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