NORFOLK, VIRGINIA (The Borowitz Report) – Eleven indicted Somali pirates dropped a bombshell in a U.S. court today, revealing that their entire piracy operation is a subsidiary of banking giant Goldman Sachs.
There was an audible gasp in the courtroom when the leader of the pirates announced, “We are doing God’s work. We work for Lloyd Blankfein.”
The pirate, who said he earned a bonus of $48 million in dubloons last year, elaborated on the nature of the Somalis’ work for Goldman, explaining that the pirates forcibly attacked ships that Goldman had already shorted.
“We were functioning as investment bankers, only every day was casual Friday,” the pirate said.
The pirate acknowledged that they merged their operations with Goldman in late 2008 to take advantage of the more relaxed regulations governing bankers as opposed to pirates, “plus to get our share of the bailout money.”
In the aftermath of the shocking revelations, government prosecutors were scrambling to see if they still had a case against the Somali pirates, who would now be treated as bankers in the eyes of the law.
“There are lots of laws that could bring these guys down if they were, in fact, pirates,” one government source said. “But if they’re bankers, our hands are tied.”
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Monday, February 8, 2010
Where is the bottom?
I get the question all the time. “When will the bear market bottom out” To help answer this we look to history (as always).
This is a picture of historical P/E’s. As you will note the two previous bear markets in ’29-’40 and ’66-’82 the P/E ratio bottomed out at around 5. The lowest being in 1920. Going by this we can expect the market to drop another 75% Why? We are at a P/E of around 20 now. So to get to 5 p/e we need a drop of 75%
Having come off the greatest bull ever with an astounding p/e/ of 44, we can expect much pain and it would not surprise me to see us set a new low p/e.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Thursday, January 21, 2010
401 k's at risk
So the headline I read stated. The gov is contemplating forcing some sort of annuity for your 401 k. seems too many lost large sums therefore are not smart enough to manage their affairs. While I agree that most have no clue and rely on the same pious hucksters for their advice, the real issue (in my opinion) is that annuities are in general insurance companies buying treasuries and keeping them in a pool for annuity buyers.
It is no secret that foreign buying of our debt is in a free fall and domestic buyers are drying up as well, forcing 401k's to buy annuities will have more capital to buy the nations debt.
Call it a conspiracy, but reality is that there is not enough floating capital to buy the debt we have at auctions now. the banks are already borrowing from the feds at .25% and buying treasuries. (hence no lending, why should they) stay with me here. We all know (at least you should) that the banks leverage every dollar to 10 so the 2.75% off of the borrow/buy fed scam, it equates to 27%. Good work if you can get it.
The insanity keeps coming: SHORT TREASURIES it will be difficult to raise capital at the auctions unless the rates start up.
Later
It is no secret that foreign buying of our debt is in a free fall and domestic buyers are drying up as well, forcing 401k's to buy annuities will have more capital to buy the nations debt.
Call it a conspiracy, but reality is that there is not enough floating capital to buy the debt we have at auctions now. the banks are already borrowing from the feds at .25% and buying treasuries. (hence no lending, why should they) stay with me here. We all know (at least you should) that the banks leverage every dollar to 10 so the 2.75% off of the borrow/buy fed scam, it equates to 27%. Good work if you can get it.
The insanity keeps coming: SHORT TREASURIES it will be difficult to raise capital at the auctions unless the rates start up.
Later
Substance
Is it any wonder the seniors get hooked all the time? Take a look at the first comment to my Japan posting. While the comments are truthful, is that really all someone looks at for advice?
This is why the mainstream media still gets it wrong on everything. I tune in and all it is, is image. Well that sells, but it does not make you money.
This is why the mainstream media still gets it wrong on everything. I tune in and all it is, is image. Well that sells, but it does not make you money.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Japan
The idea behind more profits is to get on board a train before all the other passengers. This give you the best seat to watch and the easiest exit.
Japan has been dead (investment wise) for 20 plus years. Now would probsbly be a good time to go long Japan inc. EWJ is extremely inexpensive. A good diagonal on this would be a decent play. You can buy out to '12 10 call for 1.40 or so. This give you 2 years to sell calls on it. After today drop, it should make for a good buy. Then if you want to extract the most from this long term bull trend, sell close month calls avery time a rally happens, then buy back or roll out each time the inevitable correction comes.
This should be an easy play to beat the measly returns most are getting now.
Also since the treasury basically gave un told resources to Fanni mae, FNM selling puts is another one on the radar. However it is not giving too muvh in premiums right now.
Just some thoughts
Japan has been dead (investment wise) for 20 plus years. Now would probsbly be a good time to go long Japan inc. EWJ is extremely inexpensive. A good diagonal on this would be a decent play. You can buy out to '12 10 call for 1.40 or so. This give you 2 years to sell calls on it. After today drop, it should make for a good buy. Then if you want to extract the most from this long term bull trend, sell close month calls avery time a rally happens, then buy back or roll out each time the inevitable correction comes.
This should be an easy play to beat the measly returns most are getting now.
Also since the treasury basically gave un told resources to Fanni mae, FNM selling puts is another one on the radar. However it is not giving too muvh in premiums right now.
Just some thoughts
Monday, January 18, 2010
Many opportunities in 2010
As we start a new year and a new decade, there are so many opportunities. Not the ones your advisors will see, and not the ones you might come to expect as the norm. This next decade as in the last will not fare to well for the buy and hold. This does not mean that you will nedd to day trade. Far from it. In fact you would not need to review your trades more than once a week. The trends will be very strong. All we will need to do is know where we are at in the trend and trade accordingly.
Treasuries! What a no brainer for these! With 30 years of falling interest rates to the lowest in history, it does not take rocket science to see where rates have to go. UP!!
The problem will be that it is going to be a wild ride. As equities drop and rally, so too will long term bonds. You can either buy a rydex inverse bond fund and let it go, or you can try to use options for larger gains.
This will be where I will spend my dollars. Using put stategies on TLT.
Another no brainer factor here is the massive amounts of debt the gov is piling up. The only way to pay this down is with more dollars. Devaluing the dollar is the only way to keep this charade going. In order to do this, investor will demand more for the treasuries they are buying.
So there you have it for the next 10 years. "SELL LONG TERM TREASURIES!" or put option strategies on bonds
Treasuries! What a no brainer for these! With 30 years of falling interest rates to the lowest in history, it does not take rocket science to see where rates have to go. UP!!
The problem will be that it is going to be a wild ride. As equities drop and rally, so too will long term bonds. You can either buy a rydex inverse bond fund and let it go, or you can try to use options for larger gains.
This will be where I will spend my dollars. Using put stategies on TLT.
Another no brainer factor here is the massive amounts of debt the gov is piling up. The only way to pay this down is with more dollars. Devaluing the dollar is the only way to keep this charade going. In order to do this, investor will demand more for the treasuries they are buying.
So there you have it for the next 10 years. "SELL LONG TERM TREASURIES!" or put option strategies on bonds
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Monday, July 13, 2009
And they cant find anywhere to cut??
I find this most interesting.
Now you can visualize why businesses cannot make a go. But then this comes from a nanny state.
Could you imagine getting licensed in this state?? Could you imagine the red tape to run a company in this environment?
But then this is what you vote in....
Enjoy
California Academic Performance Index (API) * California Access for Infants and Mothers * California Acupuncture Board * California Administrative Office of the Courts * California Adoptions Branch * California African American Museum * California Agricultural Export Program * California Agricultural Labor Relations Board * California Agricultural Statistics Service * California Air Resources Board (CARB) * California Allocation Board * California Alternative Energy and Advanced Transportation Financing Authority * California Animal Health and Food Safety Services * California Anti-Terrorism Information Center * California Apprenticeship Council * California Arbitration Certification Program * California Architects Board * California Area VI Developmental Disabilities Board * California Arts Council * California Asian Pacific Islander Legislative Caucus * California Assembly Democratic Caucus * California Assembly Republican Caucus * California Athletic Commission * California Attorney General * California Bay Conservation and Development Commission * California Bay-Delta Authority * California Bay-Delta Office * California Biodiversity Council * California Board for Geologists and Geophysicists * California Board for Professional Engineers and Land Surveyors * California Board of Accountancy * California Board of Barbering and Cosmetology * California Board of Behavioral Sciences * California Board of Chiropractic Examiners * California Board of Equalization (BOE) * California Board of Forestry and Fire Protection * California Board of Guide Dogs for the Blind * California Board of Occupational Therapy * California Board of Optometry * California Board of Pharmacy * California Board of Podiatric Medicine * California Board of Prison Terms * California Board of Psychology * California Board of Registered Nursing * California Board of Trustees * California Board of Vocational Nursing and Psychiatric Technicians * California Braille and Talking Book Library * California Building Standards Commission * California Bureau for Private Postsecondary and Vocational Education * California Bureau of Automotive Repair * California Bureau of Electronic and Appliance Repair * California Bureau of Home Furnishings and Thermal Insulation * California Bureau of Naturopathic Medicine * California Bureau of Security and Investigative Services * California Bureau of State Audits * California Business Agency * California Business Investment Services (CalBIS) * California Business Permit Information (CalGOLD) * California Business Portal * California Business, Transportation and Housing Agency * California Cal Grants * California CalJOBS * California Cal-Learn Program * California CalVet Home Loan Program * California Career Resource Network * California Cemetery and Funeral Bureau * California Center for Analytical Chemistry * California Center for Distributed Learning * California Center for Teaching Careers (Teach California) * California Chancellor’s Office * California Charter Schools * California Children and Families Commission * California Children and Family Services Division * California Citizens Compensation Commission * California Civil Rights Bureau * California Coastal Commission * California Coastal Conservancy * California Code of Regulations * California Collaborative Projects with UC Davis * California Commission for Jobs and Economic Growth * California Commission on Aging * California Commission on Health and Safety and Workers’ Compensation * California Commission on Judicial Performance * California Commission on State Mandates * California Commission on Status of Women * California Commission on Teacher Credentialing * California Commission on the Status of Women * California Committee on Dental Auxiliaries * California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office, Junior Colleges * California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office * California Complaint Mediation Program * California Conservation Corps * California Constitution Revision Commission * California Consumer Hotline * California Consumer Information Center * California Consumer Information * California Consumer Services Division * California Consumers and Families Agency * California Contractors State License Board * California Corrections Standards Authority * California Council for the Humanities * California Council on Criminal Justice * California Council on Developmental Disabilities * California Court Reporters Board * California Courts of Appeal * California Crime and Violence Prevention Center * California Criminal Justice Statistics Center * California Criminalistic Institute Forensic Library * California CSGnet Network Management * California Cultural and Historical Endowment * California Cultural Resources Division * California Curriculum and Instructional Leadership Branch * California Data Exchange Center * California Data Management Division * California Debt and Investment Advisory Commission * California Delta Protection Commission * California Democratic Caucus * California Demographic Research Unit * California Dental Auxiliaries * California Department of Aging * California Department of Alcohol and Drug Programs * California Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control Appeals Board * California Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control * California Department of Boating and Waterways (Cal Boating) * California Department of Child Support Services (CDCSS) * California Department of Community Services and Development * California Department of Conservation * California Department of Consumer Affairs * California Department of Corporations * California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation * California Department of Developmental Services * California Department of Education * California Department of Fair Employment and Housing * California Department of Finance * California Department of Financial Institutions * California Department of Fish and Game * California Department of Food and Agriculture * California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CDF) * California Department of General Services * California Department of General Services, Office of State Publishing * California Department of Health Care Services * California Department of Housing and Community Development * California Department of Industrial Relations (DIR) * California Department of Insurance * California Department of Justice Firearms Division * California Department of Justice Opinion Unit * California Department of Justice, Consumer Information, Public Inquiry Unit * California Department of Justice * California Department of Managed Health Care * California Department of Mental Health * California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) * California Department of Personnel Administration * California Department of Pesticide Regulation * California Department of Public Health * California Department of Real Estate * California Department of Rehabilitation * California Department of Social Services Adoptions Branch * California Department of Social Services * California Department of Technology Services Training Center (DTSTC) * California Department of Technology Services (DTS) * California Department of Toxic Substances Control * California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) * California Department of Veterans Affairs (CalVets) * California Department of Water Resources * California Departmento de Vehiculos Motorizados * California Digital Library * California Disabled Veteran Business Enterprise Certification Program * California Division of Apprenticeship Standards * California Division of Codes and Standards * California Division of Communicable Disease Control * California Division of Engineering * California Division of Environmental and Occupational Disease Control * California Division of Gambling Control * California Division of Housing Policy Development * California Division of Labor Standards Enforcement * California Division of Labor Statistics and Research * California Division of Land and Right of Way * California Division of Land Resource Protection * California Division of Law Enforcement General Library * California Division of Measurement Standards * California Division of Mines and Geology * California Division of Occupational Safety and Health (Cal/OSHA) * California Division of Oil, Gas and Geothermal Resources * California Division of Planning and Local Assistance * California Division of Recycling * California Division of Safety of Dams * California Division of the State Architect * California Division of Tourism * California Division of Workers’ Compensation Medical Unit * California Division of Workers’ Compensation * California Economic Assistance, Business and Community Resources * California Economic Strategy Panel * California Education and Training Agency * California Education Audit Appeals Panel * California Educational Facilities Authority * California Elections Division * California Electricity Oversight Board * California Emergency Management Agency * California Emergency Medical Services Authority * California Employment Development Department (EDD) * California Employment Information State Jobs * California Employment Training Panel * California Energy Commission * California Environment and Natural Resources Agency * California Environmental Protection Agency (Cal/EPA) * California Environmental Resources Evaluation System (CERES) * California Executive Office * California Export Laboratory Services * California Exposition and State Fair (Cal Expo) * California Fair Political Practices Commission * California Fairs and Expositions Division * California Film Commission * California Fire and Resource Assessment Program * California Firearms Division * California Fiscal Services * California Fish and Game Commission * California Fisheries Program Branch * California Floodplain Management * California Foster Youth Help * California Franchise Tax Board (FTB) * California Fraud Division * California Gambling Control Commission * California Geographic Information Systems Council (GIS) * California Geological Survey * California Government Claims and Victim Compensation Board * California Governor’s Committee for Employment of Disabled Persons * California Governor’s Mentoring Partnership * California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services * California Governor’s Office of Homeland Security * California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research * California Governor’s Office * California Grant and Enterprise Zone Programs HCD Loan * California Health and Human Services Agency * California Health and Safety Agency * California Healthy Families Program * California Hearing Aid Dispensers Bureau * California High-Speed Rail Authority * California Highway Patrol (CHP) * California History and Culture Agency * California Horse Racing Board * California Housing Finance Agency * California Indoor Air Quality Program * California Industrial Development Financing Advisory Commission * California Industrial Welfare Commission * California InFoPeople * California Information Center for the Environment * California Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank (I-Bank) * California Inspection Services * California Institute for County Government * California Institute for Education Reform * California Integrated Waste Management Board * California Interagency Ecological Program * California Job Service * California Junta Estatal de Personal * California Labor and Employment Agency * California Labor and Workforce Development Agency * California Labor Market Information Division * California Land Use Planning Information Network (LUPIN) * California Lands Commission * California Landscape Architects Technical Committee * California Latino Legislative Caucus * California Law Enforcement Branch * California Law Enforcement General Library * California Law Revision Commission * California Legislative Analyst’s Office * California Legislative Black Caucus * California Legislative Counsel * California Legislative Division * California Legislative Information * California Legislative Lesbian, Gay , Bisexual, and Transgender (LGBT) Caucus * California Legislature Internet Caucus * California Library Development Services * California License and Revenue Branch * California Major Risk Medical Insurance Program * California Managed Risk Medical Insurance Board * California Maritime Academy * California Marketing Services * California Measurement Standards * California Medical Assistance Commission * California Medical Care Services * California Military Department * California Mining and Geology Board * California Museum for History, Women, and the Arts * California Museum Resource Center * California National Guard * California Native American Heritage Commission * California Natural Community Conservation Planning Program * California New Motor Vehicle Board * California Nursing Home Administrator Program * California Occupational Safety and Health Appeals Board * California Occupational Safety and Health Standards Board * California Ocean Resources Management Program * California Office of Administrative Hearings * California Office of Administrative Law * California Office of AIDS * California Office of Binational Border Health * California Office of Child Abuse Prevention * California Office of Deaf Access * California Office of Emergency Services (OES) * California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment * California Office of Fiscal Services * California Office of Fleet Administration * California Office of Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) Implementation (CalOHI) * California Office of Historic Preservation * California Office of Homeland Security * California Office of Human Resources * California Office of Legal Services * California Office of Legislation * California Office of Lieutenant Governor * California Office of Military and Aerospace Support * California Office of Mine Reclamation * California Office of Natural Resource Education * California Office of Privacy Protection * California Office of Public School Construction * California Office of Real Estate Appraisers * California Office of Risk and Insurance Management * California Office of Services to the Blind * California Office of Spill Prevention and Response * California Office of State Publishing (OSP) * California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development * California Office of Systems Integration * California Office of the Inspector General * California Office of the Ombudsman * California Office of the Patient Advocate * California Office of the President * California Office of the Secretary for Education * California Office of the State Fire Marshal * California Office of the State Public Defender * California Office of Traffic Safety * California Office of Vital Records * California Online Directory * California Operations Control Office * California Opinion Unit * California Outreach and Technical Assistance Network (OTAN) * California Park and Recreation Commission * California Peace Officer Standards and Training (POST) * California Performance Review (CPR) * California Permit Information for Business (CalGOLD) * California Physical Therapy Board * California Physician Assistant Committee * California Plant Health and Pest Prevention Services * California Policy and Evaluation Division * California Political Reform Division * California Pollution Control Financing Authority * California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo * California Postsecondary Education Commission * California Prevention Services * California Primary Care and Family Health * California Prison Industry Authority * California Procurement Division * California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) * California Public Employment Relations Board (PERB) * California Public Utilities Commission (PUC) * California Real Estate Services Division * California Refugee Programs Branch * California Regional Water Quality Control Boards * California Registered Veterinary Technician Committee * California Registrar of Charitable Trusts * California Republican Caucus * California Research and Development Division * California Research Bureau * California Resources Agency * California Respiratory Care Board * California Rivers Assessment * California Rural Health Policy Council * California Safe Schools * California San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission * California San Gabriel and Lower Los Angeles Rivers and Mountains Conservancy * California San Joaquin River Conservancy * California School to Career * California Science Center * California Scripps Institution of Oceanography * California Secretary of State Business Portal * California Secretary of State * California Seismic Safety Commission * California Self Insurance Plans (SIP) * California Senate Office of Research * California Small Business and Disabled Veteran Business Enterprise Certification Program * California Small Business Development Center Program * California Smart Growth Caucus * California Smog Check Information Center * California Spatial Information Library * California Special Education Division * California Speech-Language Pathology and Audiology Board * California Standardized Testing and Reporting (STAR) * California Standards and Assessment Division * California State Administrative Manual (SAM) * California State Allocation Board * California State and Consumer Services Agency * California State Architect * California State Archives * California State Assembly * California State Association of Counties (CSAC) *0ACalifornia State Board of Education * California State Board of Food and Agriculture * California Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO) * California State Children’s Trust Fund * California State Compensation Insurance Fund * California State Contracts Register Program * California State Contracts Register * California State Controller * California State Council on Developmental Disabilities (SCDD) * California State Disability Insurance (SDI) * California State Fair (Cal Expo) * California State Jobs Employment Information * California State Lands Commission * California State Legislative Portal * California State Legislature * California State Library Catalog * California State Library Services Bureau * California State Library * California State Lottery * California State Mediation and Conciliation Service * California State Mining and Geology Board * California State Park and Recreation Commission * California State Parks * California State Personnel Board * California State Polytechnic University, Pomona * California State Railroad Museum * California State Science Fair * California State Senate * California State Summer School for Mathematics and Science (COSMOS) * California State Summer School for the Arts * California State Superintendent of Public Instruction * California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) * California State Treasurer * California State University Center for Distributed Learning * California State University, Bakersfield * California State University, Channel Islands * California State University, Chico * California State University, Dominguez Hills * California State University, East Bay * California State University, Fresno * California State University, Fullerton * California State University, Long Beach * California State University, Los Angeles * California State University, Monterey Bay * California State University, Northridge * California State University, Sacramento * California State University, San Bernardino * California State University, San Marcos * California State University, Stanislaus * California State University (CSU) * California State Water Project Analysis Office * California State Water Project * California State Water Resources Control Board * California Structural Pest Control Board * California Student Aid Commission * California Superintendent of Public Instruction * California Superior Courts * California Tahoe Conservancy * California Task Force on Culturally and Linguistically Competent Physicians and Dentists * California Tax Information Center * California Technology and Administration Branch Finance * California Telecommunications Division * California Telephone Medical Advice Services (TMAS) * California Transportation Commission * California Travel and Transportation Agency * California Unclaimed Property Program * California Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board * California Unemployment Insurance Program * California Uniform Construction Cost Accounting Commission * California Veterans Board * California Veterans Memorial * California Veterinary Medical Board and Registered Veterinary Technician Examining Committee * California Veterinary Medical Board * California Victim Compensation and Government Claims Board * California Volunteers * California Voter Registration * California Water Commission * California Water Environment Association (CWEA) * California Water Resources Control Board * California Welfare to Work Division * California Wetlands Information System * California Wildlife and Habitat Data Analysis Branch * California Wildlife Conservation Board * California Wildlife Programs Branch * California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids (CalWORKs) * California Workers’ Compensation Appeals Board * California Workforce and Labor Development Agency * California Workforce Investment Board * California Youth Authority (CYA) * Central Valley Flood Protection Board * Center for California Studies * Colorado River Board of California * Counting California * Dental Board of California * Health Insurance Plan of California (PacAdvantage) * Humboldt State University * Jobs with the State of California * Judicial Council of California * Learn California * Library of California * Lieutenant Governor’s Commission for One California * Little Hoover Commission (on California State Government Organization and Economy) * Medical Board of California * Medi-Cal * Osteopathic Medical Board of California * Physical Therapy Board of California * Regents of the University of California * San Diego State University * San Francisco State University * San José Stat e University * Santa Monica Mountains Conservancy * State Bar of California * Supreme Court of California * Teach California * University of California * University of California, Berkeley * University of California, Davis * University of California, Hastings College of the Law * University of California, Irvine * University of California, Los Angeles * University of California, Merced * University of California, Riverside * University of California, San Diego * University of California, San Francisco * University of California, Santa Barbara * University of California, Santa Cruz * Veterans Home of California
Now you can visualize why businesses cannot make a go. But then this comes from a nanny state.
Could you imagine getting licensed in this state?? Could you imagine the red tape to run a company in this environment?
But then this is what you vote in....
Enjoy
California Academic Performance Index (API) * California Access for Infants and Mothers * California Acupuncture Board * California Administrative Office of the Courts * California Adoptions Branch * California African American Museum * California Agricultural Export Program * California Agricultural Labor Relations Board * California Agricultural Statistics Service * California Air Resources Board (CARB) * California Allocation Board * California Alternative Energy and Advanced Transportation Financing Authority * California Animal Health and Food Safety Services * California Anti-Terrorism Information Center * California Apprenticeship Council * California Arbitration Certification Program * California Architects Board * California Area VI Developmental Disabilities Board * California Arts Council * California Asian Pacific Islander Legislative Caucus * California Assembly Democratic Caucus * California Assembly Republican Caucus * California Athletic Commission * California Attorney General * California Bay Conservation and Development Commission * California Bay-Delta Authority * California Bay-Delta Office * California Biodiversity Council * California Board for Geologists and Geophysicists * California Board for Professional Engineers and Land Surveyors * California Board of Accountancy * California Board of Barbering and Cosmetology * California Board of Behavioral Sciences * California Board of Chiropractic Examiners * California Board of Equalization (BOE) * California Board of Forestry and Fire Protection * California Board of Guide Dogs for the Blind * California Board of Occupational Therapy * California Board of Optometry * California Board of Pharmacy * California Board of Podiatric Medicine * California Board of Prison Terms * California Board of Psychology * California Board of Registered Nursing * California Board of Trustees * California Board of Vocational Nursing and Psychiatric Technicians * California Braille and Talking Book Library * California Building Standards Commission * California Bureau for Private Postsecondary and Vocational Education * California Bureau of Automotive Repair * California Bureau of Electronic and Appliance Repair * California Bureau of Home Furnishings and Thermal Insulation * California Bureau of Naturopathic Medicine * California Bureau of Security and Investigative Services * California Bureau of State Audits * California Business Agency * California Business Investment Services (CalBIS) * California Business Permit Information (CalGOLD) * California Business Portal * California Business, Transportation and Housing Agency * California Cal Grants * California CalJOBS * California Cal-Learn Program * California CalVet Home Loan Program * California Career Resource Network * California Cemetery and Funeral Bureau * California Center for Analytical Chemistry * California Center for Distributed Learning * California Center for Teaching Careers (Teach California) * California Chancellor’s Office * California Charter Schools * California Children and Families Commission * California Children and Family Services Division * California Citizens Compensation Commission * California Civil Rights Bureau * California Coastal Commission * California Coastal Conservancy * California Code of Regulations * California Collaborative Projects with UC Davis * California Commission for Jobs and Economic Growth * California Commission on Aging * California Commission on Health and Safety and Workers’ Compensation * California Commission on Judicial Performance * California Commission on State Mandates * California Commission on Status of Women * California Commission on Teacher Credentialing * California Commission on the Status of Women * California Committee on Dental Auxiliaries * California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office, Junior Colleges * California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office * California Complaint Mediation Program * California Conservation Corps * California Constitution Revision Commission * California Consumer Hotline * California Consumer Information Center * California Consumer Information * California Consumer Services Division * California Consumers and Families Agency * California Contractors State License Board * California Corrections Standards Authority * California Council for the Humanities * California Council on Criminal Justice * California Council on Developmental Disabilities * California Court Reporters Board * California Courts of Appeal * California Crime and Violence Prevention Center * California Criminal Justice Statistics Center * California Criminalistic Institute Forensic Library * California CSGnet Network Management * California Cultural and Historical Endowment * California Cultural Resources Division * California Curriculum and Instructional Leadership Branch * California Data Exchange Center * California Data Management Division * California Debt and Investment Advisory Commission * California Delta Protection Commission * California Democratic Caucus * California Demographic Research Unit * California Dental Auxiliaries * California Department of Aging * California Department of Alcohol and Drug Programs * California Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control Appeals Board * California Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control * California Department of Boating and Waterways (Cal Boating) * California Department of Child Support Services (CDCSS) * California Department of Community Services and Development * California Department of Conservation * California Department of Consumer Affairs * California Department of Corporations * California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation * California Department of Developmental Services * California Department of Education * California Department of Fair Employment and Housing * California Department of Finance * California Department of Financial Institutions * California Department of Fish and Game * California Department of Food and Agriculture * California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CDF) * California Department of General Services * California Department of General Services, Office of State Publishing * California Department of Health Care Services * California Department of Housing and Community Development * California Department of Industrial Relations (DIR) * California Department of Insurance * California Department of Justice Firearms Division * California Department of Justice Opinion Unit * California Department of Justice, Consumer Information, Public Inquiry Unit * California Department of Justice * California Department of Managed Health Care * California Department of Mental Health * California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) * California Department of Personnel Administration * California Department of Pesticide Regulation * California Department of Public Health * California Department of Real Estate * California Department of Rehabilitation * California Department of Social Services Adoptions Branch * California Department of Social Services * California Department of Technology Services Training Center (DTSTC) * California Department of Technology Services (DTS) * California Department of Toxic Substances Control * California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) * California Department of Veterans Affairs (CalVets) * California Department of Water Resources * California Departmento de Vehiculos Motorizados * California Digital Library * California Disabled Veteran Business Enterprise Certification Program * California Division of Apprenticeship Standards * California Division of Codes and Standards * California Division of Communicable Disease Control * California Division of Engineering * California Division of Environmental and Occupational Disease Control * California Division of Gambling Control * California Division of Housing Policy Development * California Division of Labor Standards Enforcement * California Division of Labor Statistics and Research * California Division of Land and Right of Way * California Division of Land Resource Protection * California Division of Law Enforcement General Library * California Division of Measurement Standards * California Division of Mines and Geology * California Division of Occupational Safety and Health (Cal/OSHA) * California Division of Oil, Gas and Geothermal Resources * California Division of Planning and Local Assistance * California Division of Recycling * California Division of Safety of Dams * California Division of the State Architect * California Division of Tourism * California Division of Workers’ Compensation Medical Unit * California Division of Workers’ Compensation * California Economic Assistance, Business and Community Resources * California Economic Strategy Panel * California Education and Training Agency * California Education Audit Appeals Panel * California Educational Facilities Authority * California Elections Division * California Electricity Oversight Board * California Emergency Management Agency * California Emergency Medical Services Authority * California Employment Development Department (EDD) * California Employment Information State Jobs * California Employment Training Panel * California Energy Commission * California Environment and Natural Resources Agency * California Environmental Protection Agency (Cal/EPA) * California Environmental Resources Evaluation System (CERES) * California Executive Office * California Export Laboratory Services * California Exposition and State Fair (Cal Expo) * California Fair Political Practices Commission * California Fairs and Expositions Division * California Film Commission * California Fire and Resource Assessment Program * California Firearms Division * California Fiscal Services * California Fish and Game Commission * California Fisheries Program Branch * California Floodplain Management * California Foster Youth Help * California Franchise Tax Board (FTB) * California Fraud Division * California Gambling Control Commission * California Geographic Information Systems Council (GIS) * California Geological Survey * California Government Claims and Victim Compensation Board * California Governor’s Committee for Employment of Disabled Persons * California Governor’s Mentoring Partnership * California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services * California Governor’s Office of Homeland Security * California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research * California Governor’s Office * California Grant and Enterprise Zone Programs HCD Loan * California Health and Human Services Agency * California Health and Safety Agency * California Healthy Families Program * California Hearing Aid Dispensers Bureau * California High-Speed Rail Authority * California Highway Patrol (CHP) * California History and Culture Agency * California Horse Racing Board * California Housing Finance Agency * California Indoor Air Quality Program * California Industrial Development Financing Advisory 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Friday, June 19, 2009
Financial overseer
If Obama gets his way, the federal reserve will be the watch dog over "all' financial transactions.
For those new to this blog, I blasted Bush as well. So this is not a party thing. I have repeatedly said both parties are corrupt.
This Federal reserve is not even elected. It meets in secret, no press in their meetings, they are appointed...I can go on and on.
We are witnessing the end of the greatest economy ever in the history of mankind. Those seeking power grabs will not stop at just this.
So why the spouting on this blog?? Because it will effect your entire future.
I am beginning to agree with Rogers. Move to Asia (Singapore I think) While masking as communism, they are more capitalistic than we are.
From your retirement accounts to your jobs, we are falling off a cliff here. Better be well prepared. It is going to jolt the masses and you need to be ready. You need to get your house in order.
For those new to this blog, I blasted Bush as well. So this is not a party thing. I have repeatedly said both parties are corrupt.
This Federal reserve is not even elected. It meets in secret, no press in their meetings, they are appointed...I can go on and on.
We are witnessing the end of the greatest economy ever in the history of mankind. Those seeking power grabs will not stop at just this.
So why the spouting on this blog?? Because it will effect your entire future.
I am beginning to agree with Rogers. Move to Asia (Singapore I think) While masking as communism, they are more capitalistic than we are.
From your retirement accounts to your jobs, we are falling off a cliff here. Better be well prepared. It is going to jolt the masses and you need to be ready. You need to get your house in order.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Inflation/Deflation
This will be a subject talked about. Since the next few months trading depends on getting this right, much will be discussed. As we look at the latest gov figures today, (what part you can believe) we see that inflation did not rise as much as expected. This is deflation winning.
But do not be surprised with another "bailout" "stimulus" from the gov. deflation is much worse in the eyes of the feds than inflation. Problem is the deleveraging is going to take more capital than the feds will be able to pump into it.
So...tangibles will be falling as a result of this latest round. At what point are the feds going to stop pursuing the printing? Who knows.
For now the breather in tangibles should be looked at as a chance to get in. Also the breather in falling bonds should be looked at as a chance to get short.
Time will tell when deflation is defeated. With the credit markets imploding all around, my guess is deflation for longer than most expect.
But do not be surprised with another "bailout" "stimulus" from the gov. deflation is much worse in the eyes of the feds than inflation. Problem is the deleveraging is going to take more capital than the feds will be able to pump into it.
So...tangibles will be falling as a result of this latest round. At what point are the feds going to stop pursuing the printing? Who knows.
For now the breather in tangibles should be looked at as a chance to get in. Also the breather in falling bonds should be looked at as a chance to get short.
Time will tell when deflation is defeated. With the credit markets imploding all around, my guess is deflation for longer than most expect.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Housing starts Jump 17%
Yet the market as I write is going down. Why? Isnt this good news? NO! What started this mess? Housing meltdown. It is terrible but builders only know how to build. This will just put even more pressure on an already over supplied housing.
I guess if I was a builder, I cannot make money unless I build, but then those houses need to sell in a glutted market.
This is not the news you wnted to hear in spite of the media spin.
I guess if I was a builder, I cannot make money unless I build, but then those houses need to sell in a glutted market.
This is not the news you wnted to hear in spite of the media spin.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Shorting Bonds
In this weeks newsletter I mentioned that many analysts (ones I respect anyways) feel the trade for the next decade will be short bonds and long energy.
While I agree, I missed the best point on this trade back when TLT was at 123 or so. I am waiting for a nice run up to get along diagonal put spread going on this.
Leaps are not out of the question either. Although those trades take more capital and as such the returns can sometimes lag the shorter 6 months out trades. The nice thing about doing the leaps is you can basically sell way out of the money and only want to capture time decay and let the leap run in the money for a long while.
This should be a very long ride and with those rides, we will see many volatile swings that will make many give up the ship. All the factors are in place to make bonds a bad investment gong forward for a very long time (in my opinion). This Will also effect Cd's at banks and other fixed income investment so steer clear if you can. Annuities would fit into this as well. The locked in rates will lag the upward pressure on interest rates.
As a long term advocate of whole life, it might just be a term and invest the difference decade. Many insurance companies will struggle. Remember that those state funds are for only the guarantee on the policy when a comapny goes belly up. Most of those guarantees are in the 4-5% range.
If you have a universal life policy sold back in the 80's or 90's, you need to have a serious talk with someone and see where you stand.
I would be glad to assist.
While I agree, I missed the best point on this trade back when TLT was at 123 or so. I am waiting for a nice run up to get along diagonal put spread going on this.
Leaps are not out of the question either. Although those trades take more capital and as such the returns can sometimes lag the shorter 6 months out trades. The nice thing about doing the leaps is you can basically sell way out of the money and only want to capture time decay and let the leap run in the money for a long while.
This should be a very long ride and with those rides, we will see many volatile swings that will make many give up the ship. All the factors are in place to make bonds a bad investment gong forward for a very long time (in my opinion). This Will also effect Cd's at banks and other fixed income investment so steer clear if you can. Annuities would fit into this as well. The locked in rates will lag the upward pressure on interest rates.
As a long term advocate of whole life, it might just be a term and invest the difference decade. Many insurance companies will struggle. Remember that those state funds are for only the guarantee on the policy when a comapny goes belly up. Most of those guarantees are in the 4-5% range.
If you have a universal life policy sold back in the 80's or 90's, you need to have a serious talk with someone and see where you stand.
I would be glad to assist.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Once again Deflation/Inflation
The war rages on. If the efforts by the Feds massive amount of cash sloshing around going to reinflate or not? Bond traders are specualting it will, commodity prices are acting like they agree.
What most are not considering is the fact that the very thing that caused the bubble to pop (Real Estate) is still imploding and spreading to the commercial sector.
For the agressive traders buying into the comodity run may just be a good trade. However watch for the run to fade in a few months. What most are banking on is the inflation forcing tangibles. While I agree this could happen, I also see the implosion of trillions of dollars in Real Estate that the banks still will not disclose. If the reality of this does come home to roost and production (see euro production article)drops, then there will be too much suply once again haging around and prices will once again drop.
To play this, get on board a few commodity ETF's for the summer and be careful. This could turn fast and furious.
Or you can trade super conservatively like I do and wait for the rally to halt and then sell diagonals on the way down. Either way will make for a wild summer.
What most are not considering is the fact that the very thing that caused the bubble to pop (Real Estate) is still imploding and spreading to the commercial sector.
For the agressive traders buying into the comodity run may just be a good trade. However watch for the run to fade in a few months. What most are banking on is the inflation forcing tangibles. While I agree this could happen, I also see the implosion of trillions of dollars in Real Estate that the banks still will not disclose. If the reality of this does come home to roost and production (see euro production article)drops, then there will be too much suply once again haging around and prices will once again drop.
To play this, get on board a few commodity ETF's for the summer and be careful. This could turn fast and furious.
Or you can trade super conservatively like I do and wait for the rally to halt and then sell diagonals on the way down. Either way will make for a wild summer.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Want a scare?
Go to bloomberg.com and search for Davidowitz. Listen to a few of his podcasts.
Not that he is not saying what we have been here for over 2 years, just that a mainstream analyst is saying it, must mean it is far worse and ca no longer be covered up.
Let me know what you think
Here is a sample enjoy
Time to hunker down and get serious isnt it?
Not that he is not saying what we have been here for over 2 years, just that a mainstream analyst is saying it, must mean it is far worse and ca no longer be covered up.
Let me know what you think
Here is a sample enjoy
Time to hunker down and get serious isnt it?
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Is the rally over?
Far from me being able to prognosticate markets timing, but have we run the course of the bear market rally?
It really has the appearance of a Japan style economy. Throw some money here, wait and see, Throw some there wait and see. Hide the bank problems, hide off balance sheet losses, etc.
What did Japan get for all of its tricks? 20 years of a spiral down. Mind you some of the rallies were impressive and sustained a year on many of these rally's. 40%-50%even 60% retracements only to falter and eventually continue lower.
The only question in my mind is are we exactly like Japan or similar. These rallies will be long and appear to have the bottom in sight. Reality tells me otherwise.
How to trade this stuff is taking the long term bear approach and selling shorter term against the long term. These rallies could be 6 months or more in the making.
You could wait until a decent rally in the 30% range then take positions to the short tide as well.
Secular bear markets make a very select few very wealthy. Because only the few recognize what it is. The "Professionals" i.e. financial planners, insurance, brokers etc. have a mind set and compensation set up to make money only as markets rally.
For the most part the many will buy on these dips only to see much lower prices later on. The very select wise traders will see the rally points as opportunities to get more short positions and ride out the temporary rally.
There is going to be much more pain to come. The best thing you can do for folks is to show them what is really happening and how to get on board.
p.s. I do take referral, but as most of you know it is only the very select few that want to come on board.
It really has the appearance of a Japan style economy. Throw some money here, wait and see, Throw some there wait and see. Hide the bank problems, hide off balance sheet losses, etc.
What did Japan get for all of its tricks? 20 years of a spiral down. Mind you some of the rallies were impressive and sustained a year on many of these rally's. 40%-50%even 60% retracements only to falter and eventually continue lower.
The only question in my mind is are we exactly like Japan or similar. These rallies will be long and appear to have the bottom in sight. Reality tells me otherwise.
How to trade this stuff is taking the long term bear approach and selling shorter term against the long term. These rallies could be 6 months or more in the making.
You could wait until a decent rally in the 30% range then take positions to the short tide as well.
Secular bear markets make a very select few very wealthy. Because only the few recognize what it is. The "Professionals" i.e. financial planners, insurance, brokers etc. have a mind set and compensation set up to make money only as markets rally.
For the most part the many will buy on these dips only to see much lower prices later on. The very select wise traders will see the rally points as opportunities to get more short positions and ride out the temporary rally.
There is going to be much more pain to come. The best thing you can do for folks is to show them what is really happening and how to get on board.
p.s. I do take referral, but as most of you know it is only the very select few that want to come on board.
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