Friday, December 12, 2008

Bailouts

We are not even going to get into the fact that these things are unconstitutional. What is that paper anyways.

We are going to get into the fact that emotions are running high...These bailouts while sound good short term, eventually prolong the inevitable. Capitalism (the way I understand it anyways) if to allow each and every individual the opportunity to succeed or FAIL! as they choose. Isn't that why the constitution allows for bankruptcy? Take away the chance to succeed or fail takes away risk. without risk, we go stagnant. Take away short selling or requiring to file when taking a short position does the opposite of what it is intended to do.

So now that we are officially a nationalized nation, where is the risk and the reward?

Off my soap box...as traders we need to understand human behavior since the markets are basically swung from fear to greed and back. We see the auto bail out fail. The market is in a tailspin. The fear is rampant as I write this. But wait...is there anyone reading this posting that really thinks the auto industry is going in the dumpster while central planners are at the helm? How soon we forget only a month or so ago this same play on the nation stage only it was 700 billion. Remember?

If you have a gambling bone, buy calls on GM. If you are conservative like I am, buy into the soon to be rally after this fallout today is over. Remember who is calling the shots. After another round of appeals, the bailout will happen.

My question looking past next weeks massive rally is then what?

Looking to take off the long side on my calendars and diagonals and waiting for the bounce and then buying the long side once again. If this is a bit too complex for you, then just get out of the short SPY and then re-enter next week after the hoopla Detroit is saved mantra wears off and then short the SPY once again.

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