Thursday, September 25, 2008

And Now WAMU

JP Morgan bought Washington Mutual after the FDIC seized them. Morgan it is estimated has 30-1 leverage of their own. My guess is that Morgan will be the next victim of the investment bankers. they can only buy so much of the counter party that they sold to.

This is getting interesting to say the least. If you wanted to play a pretty good idea, you might look to selling a call spread on Morgan 6 months out and 10% above its price. However wait until the big rally today once the WAMU news jumps Morgan.

Here is the fundamentals as I see them. We are setting up the largest drop in the dollar to happen. The next big bust is bonds as interest rates go up regardless of what the reserve does. They will almost certainly have to raise to keep up with market pressure.

I mentioned inverse ETF's and that has backfired. With the SEC banning short selling, many of these instruments had to stop trading since they could not sell short. If they were set up with puts, then they were not effected.

It is tough to have any degree of confidence when they change the rules on you. Many are sitting on the sidelines and that can be a position too, I think the gold,oil,etc. game is just fine in these times for me anyways

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

i knoww that things ARE not good economically but it seems like it is a deversion to sneek laws into this rescue bill to affect our fredoms in the fuure.things are chanGING TO FAST.IT SEEMS LIKE SOME PEOPLE ARE GO NIG TO BE VERY POWERFUL IN THE GOVERNMENT WITH OUT BEING ELECTED ,AFTER SIGN 911 WE LOST MANY OF OUR RIGHTS AMERICANS,NOSEARCH AND SEIZURE, WARRENT,NOW IN SOME CASES THE PRISONER MUST PROVE HIS INNOCENCE , ALSO YOUR ASSETS CAN STOLEN BY THE BEFORE GUILT IS PROVEN .GOVERNMENT.SOUNDS LIKE HISTORY REPEAT9ING ISELF.LAWS THAT ARE SUPPOSODLY MADE TO HELPTHE CITIZENS,ARE USED TO UHIDE YHE REAL TRUTH,LESS POWER TO THE PEOPLE SIGNED NOT SO SURE

Anonymous said...

WaMu got robbed. Pure and simple.

Anonymous said...

Hi Dell,
interesting article:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/09/credit-market-is-closed.html