What a difference a day makes

We were certain the trend in commodities had changed. MSNBC proclaimed it therefor it was. The masters of the universe proclaimed it therefore it was. They stole my money and pumped it into the system therefore it had to work. Yet we are still going down.

Central planners will be burning the midnight oil this weekend I am told. To finalize a game plan. Once the proclamation was made the edict pronounced, it was so. Now the details just have to be hammered out. Details like how much for a bridge to nowhere. How much longer to extend unemployment benefits etc. Not no never mind the market will do what the market will do. I don't care how much of my money they are going to throw at it.

One thing is certain. Mr market is always right no matter how long it takes and how stupid we reject it, ultimately Mr. Market always wins. Even if we forbid the speculator from shorting and making Mr. Market work more effectively, Mr. Market will still find the true value. Even if we postpone Mr. Market from trading (as in Russia), sooner or later when we do finally open the doors, Mr. Market will be right.

A month or so ago one of my many readings (otherwise I would give credit) the point was made that if the government does nothing, this mess will take about 2 years to clean up. If the government gets involved, it will take 5-10 years.

Now as most of you know I am a very conservative speculator. But times like these call for action. I have not seen such an opportunity for wealth creation by trading in 30 years. You will see me offer straight calls and puts. This is because as phase 2 of this great bull run in commodities takes hold, we will want to leverage all we can out of this. This is the phase where all out gains are made.

For this reason I will shock many including myself. But the gains are just too large to be made to ignore. So instead of all calendar and diagonal spreads, we will be using many long calls. Should make for some very large gains over the next 2-3 years.